National Single Points of Failure

The Mississippi River’s Old River Control Structure, a National Single Point of Failure? Given the recent events in Fukushima and our subsequent western cultural obsession with the radiological consequences, perhaps it’s appropriate to reflect on other non-nuclear vulnerabilities. As a case in point what about the Old River Control Structure erected by those busy chaps [...]

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What the IPCC Got Wrong

The IPCC issued a set of lead author guidance notes on how to describe uncertainty prior to the fourth IPCC assessment. In it the IPCC laid out a methodology on how to deal with various classes of uncertainty. Unforunately the IPCC guidance also fell into a fatal trap.

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Why Kevin Rudd Is a Big Fat Idiot

Way off topic for this blog but I watched the ABC’s 7:30 current affair report on thursday in which Kevin, our illustrious prime minister, was put on the spot about why he has publically supported Australia having a population of 35 million people. His response? Well basically his argument was “it’s bigger than both of us so jus lie back and enjoy it”.

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Communicating Risk (Pt 3) – Memes and the Media

While Smith and Madden’s argument turns out to be the usual denialist slumgullion it does serve as a useful jump off point for a discussion of the role of the media in propagating such pernicious memes and more broadly in communicating risk.

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Communicating Risk (Pt 2) – Fallacious Arguments

In the first part of this post on Drew Warne Smith and James Madden’s article on climate change I dealt with the factual basis of their argument. In this second part I want to spend some time looking at the logical and psychological elements of their argument.

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Communicating Risk – (Pt 1) Just the Facts

According to Drew Warne Smith and James Madden writing in the Nov 7th edition of the Australian “The science is in on sea-level rise: 1.7 mm” . Thererefore, according to Smith and Madden we don’t need to worry because it’s a modest 1.7mm rise and a third less than the government’s predictions. The article by Smith and Madden provides an excellent example of how fallacious arguments can be used mis-inform the unwary and thereby shape the public perception of risk.

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Climate Change and Uncertainty

If you read through the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports you’ll strike qualitative phrases such as’likely’ and ‘high confidence’ to describe uncertainty. But is there a credible basis for these terms?

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